feat(#57): hybrid war — TurnResult.hybrid ops (spy/sabotage/assassinate/cyber/economic/information/proxy) with exposure backfire

server/engine.ts

@@ -24,12 +24,15 @@ import {
   clampStat,
   deriveNationStats,
   fnv1a32,
+  HYBRID_OP_TYPES,
   isDateLike,
   isMarkerType,
   makeEvent,
   markerId,
   MAX_MARKERS,
   nationForPrompt,
+  type HybridOp,
+  type HybridOpType,
   type MarkerInfo,
   type MarkerSpec,
   type NationOp,
@@ -55,6 +58,12 @@ const VALID_EVENT_TYPES = new Set<string>(EVENT_TYPES);
 const VALID_RELATIONS = new Set<string>(RELATION_STATUSES);
 const VALID_OUTCOMES = new Set<string>(['success', 'failure', 'partial', 'neutral']);
 const VALID_STATS = new Set<string>(['military', 'economy', 'stability', 'population']);
+const VALID_HYBRID_TYPES = new Set<string>(HYBRID_OP_TYPES);
+
+/** True when `t` is one of the seven known hybrid op types (v0.34.0, #57). */
+export function isHybridOpType(t: unknown): t is HybridOpType {
+  return typeof t === 'string' && VALID_HYBRID_TYPES.has(t);
+}
 
 // --- The LLM's getNeighbours tool (v0.21, #16 P2: contiguous region transfers) ---
 
@@ -206,6 +215,7 @@ export function buildSystemPrompt(preset: Preset, withNeighboursTool = false): s
     '  ],',
     '  "takeovers": [{"nationRef":"<nation id or name>","newRegimeName":"<name of the new regime>"}],',
     '  "wars": {"declare":[{"sides":["<nationId>","<nationId>"],"aims":["<short aim>"]}],"end":[{"id":"<war id>","outcome":"<armistice|capitulation>","terms":"<short terms>"}]},',
+    '  "hybrid": {"ops":[{"type":"<spy|sabotage|assassinate|cyber|economic|information|proxy>","from":"<nation id or name>","target":"<nation id or name, or region key>","detail":"<short detail>","outcome":"<success|exposed>"}]},',
     '  "markers": {"add":[{"type":"<city|factory|army|port|capital|fleet|rocket|gathering>","name":"<short name>","regionKey":"<region key>"}],"remove":["<marker id>"]}',
     '}',
     '',
@@ -225,6 +235,7 @@ export function buildSystemPrompt(preset: Preset, withNeighboursTool = false): s
     '- Merge: add {"kind":"merge","nationRefs":["<id or name>","<id or name>"],"survivingRef":"<id or name of the surviving nation>","into":"<new name>"} when states reunify or one is absorbed. Use at least 2 input nations and "survivingRef" must name one of them — the survivor keeps its id and its stats.',
     '- Takeover (automatic, NOT player-confirmed): add {"takeovers":[{"nationRef":"<nation id or name>","newRegimeName":"<name of the new regime>"}]} when a low-stability nation (e.g. stability < 30) hosting a "gathering" marker is overthrown in a coup or revolution. This renames the nation to the new regime (e.g. "France" → "Vichy Regime"). Also emit a narrative "event" (political or social, outcome "success") and a stability/economy shock via "stateChanges". A takeover is an automatic in-world regime change — use "nationOps" rename only for a diplomatic/political name change that the player must confirm.',
     '- Wars ("wars") are named conflicts, each with a stable id. To DECLARE one, add {"declare":[{"sides":["<id>","<id>"],"aims":[...]}]} with at least 2 distinct belligerents: while it is active the engine AUTOMATICALLY sets both directions of every warring pair\'s relation to "war" and drags in the mutual-defense allies of each belligerent, so do NOT also emit a "war" relation for those pairs (you can never "make peace" between them without ending the war). To END an active war, add {"end":[{"id":"<war id from the user message\'s "wars" field>","outcome":"<armistice|capitulation>"}]} — only active wars can be ended, and when one ends its belligerent pairs fall back to "hostile". Propose at most 1-2 declarations per turn and narrate each declaration and each ending in "events".',
+    '- Covert / hybrid ops ("hybrid.ops") are non-kinetic operations — spies, sabotage, assassination attempts, cyberattacks, economic pressure, disinformation, and proxy support. Unlike territory they NEVER move borders: a successful op applies a small, deterministic effect (a small dip in the target\'s economy / stability / military for sabotage / assassinate / cyber / economic, or a relation nudge toward hostile for information / proxy), while an "exposed" op backfires (no effect, and the actor\'s relation with the target sours by one step toward hostile). "target" may be a nation id / name or a region key (a region key hits that region\'s sole owner). Keep each detail short, propose at most a few per turn, and narrate each op in "events".',
     '- Prefer 1-4 events per turn; keep each text 1-3 sentences.',
     '- Keep your internal reasoning brief (a few sentences) and go straight to the JSON result; do not over-deliberate or re-derive facts already present in the state.',
     '- Keep every stat value between 0 and 100.',
@@ -276,6 +287,14 @@ export function buildUserPrompt(
    * Omitted entirely when undefined.
    */
   wars?: WarInfo[],
+  /**
+   * (v0.34.0, #57) The player's current relations to every other nation
+   * (`nationId -> RelationStatus`). Emitted verbatim (even when empty) so the
+   * model sees the relation ladder it can nudge with `information` / `proxy`
+   * hybrid ops and knows the current state before an `exposed` backfire.
+   * Omitted entirely when undefined.
+   */
+  relations?: Record<string, RelationStatus>,
 ): string {
   const player = state.nations[state.playerNationId];
   const playerName = player?.name ?? state.playerNationId;
@@ -389,6 +408,7 @@ export function buildUserPrompt(
   if (noMansLand !== undefined) payload.unowned = noMansLand;
   if (markers !== undefined) payload.markers = markers;
   if (wars !== undefined) payload.wars = wars;
+  if (relations !== undefined) payload.relations = relations;
   return JSON.stringify(payload, null, 2);
 }
 
@@ -528,6 +548,7 @@ export function validateTurnResult(
     nationOps: [],
     takeovers: [],
     wars: { declare: [], end: [] },
+    hybrid: { ops: [] },
     markers: { add: [], remove: [] },
   };
 
@@ -626,6 +647,12 @@ export function validateTurnResult(
   // Applied directly by applyTurnResult (after takeovers, before markers).
   result.wars = validateWarOps(o.wars);
 
+  // (v0.34.0, #57) Covert hybrid ops (spies, sabotage, assassination, cyber,
+  // economic, disinformation, proxy). Applied directly by applyTurnResult
+  // (after wars, before markers) — a deterministic per-type effect or an
+  // exposed backfire.
+  result.hybrid = { ops: validateHybridOps(o.hybrid) };
+
   // (v0.27, #44) Map-marker ops: new placements (validated here) and
   // removals by stable id. Applied by applyTurnResult after the territory
   // moves (a new marker's owner is the region's post-turn owner).
@@ -806,6 +833,54 @@ export function validateWarOps(raw: unknown): { declare: WarDeclareOp[]; end: Wa
   return out;
 }
 
+/**
+ * (v0.34.0, #57) Validate the raw `hybrid` field of a turn into a safe
+ * `{ ops }` shape. Defensive like the rest of the parser — never throws. The
+ * raw value may be the object `{ ops: [...] }` (the TurnResult shape) or a bare
+ * array (be lenient about either). Each op needs a known `type` (one of
+ * {@link HYBRID_OP_TYPES}), a non-empty `from` (the acting nation, capped at
+ * 200 chars) and a non-empty `target` (a nation id/name or a region key, capped
+ * at 200 chars); an `outcome` of exactly `success` or `exposed` is kept (the
+ * default, `success`, is stored as absent to keep the shape minimal — the
+ * engine treats a missing outcome as success); a non-empty `detail` is capped
+ * at 300 chars. Resolution of `from` / `target` to concrete nation ids or
+ * region owners happens at apply time (`applyHybridOp`), not here.
+ */
+export function validateHybridOps(raw: unknown): HybridOp[] {
+  if (!Array.isArray(raw)) {
+    // Lenient: accept the `{ ops: [...] }` object shape (or a non-array → []).
+    if (raw && typeof raw === 'object' && !Array.isArray(raw)) {
+      const inner = (raw as Record<string, unknown>).ops;
+      if (!Array.isArray(inner)) return [];
+      return validateHybridOpsList(inner);
+    }
+    return [];
+  }
+  return validateHybridOpsList(raw);
+}
+
+function validateHybridOpsList(raw: unknown[]): HybridOp[] {
+  const out: HybridOp[] = [];
+  for (const e of raw) {
+    if (!e || typeof e !== 'object') continue;
+    const o = e as Record<string, unknown>;
+    if (!isHybridOpType(o.type)) continue;
+    const from = str(o.from, 200);
+    const target = str(o.target, 200);
+    if (!from || !target) continue;
+    const detail = str(o.detail, 300);
+    const exposed = o.outcome === 'exposed'; // 'success' / missing → success
+    out.push({
+      type: o.type,
+      from,
+      target,
+      ...(detail ? { detail } : {}),
+      ...(exposed ? { outcome: 'exposed' as const } : {}),
+    });
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+
 /**
  * (v0.33.0, #56) The UNORDERED pairs of belligerents of a set of ACTIVE
  * wars: a war with sides [a, b, c] contributes the pairs {a,b}, {a,c},
@@ -879,6 +954,217 @@ export function syncWarRelations(prev: GameState, next: GameState): void {
   }
 }
 
+// --- Hybrid war (v0.34.0, #57): covert, non-kinetic operations -------------
+//
+// The engine's DETERMINISTIC effects for the seven hybrid op types. There is no
+// hidden randomness: the LLM declares an intended `outcome` (success / exposed)
+// and the engine acts only on that. Each effect is small and documented:
+//
+//   spy         informational only — no stat, no relation (pure intel)
+//   sabotage    a small ECONOMY dip on the target
+//   assassinate a small STABILITY dip on the target (absent the named-leaders
+//               feature, #61, a leader's removal sours the polity)
+//   cyber       a small MILITARY dip on the target
+//   economic    a small ECONOMY dip on the target
+//   information a relation nudge toward hostile (cap hostile) — disinformation
+//   proxy       a light relation nudge toward hostile (cap rival) — proxy war
+//
+// A successful stat op dips the target's `regionStats` (the single named region
+// when the target was a region key, otherwise every region the target owns) and
+// re-derives the target nation's aggregate stats so the effect persists. A
+// successful information/proxy and any exposed op sour the actor's relation
+// with the target by one step on the hostile ladder.
+
+/** The deterministic per-type stat effect of a hybrid op (v0.34.0, #57). */
+export const HYBRID_STAT_EFFECT: Record<HybridOpType, { stat: StatKey; delta: number } | null> = {
+  spy: null, // informational only
+  sabotage: { stat: 'economy', delta: -3 },
+  assassinate: { stat: 'stability', delta: -5 },
+  cyber: { stat: 'military', delta: -3 },
+  economic: { stat: 'economy', delta: -5 },
+  information: null, // relation nudge only
+  proxy: null, // relation nudge only
+};
+
+/**
+ * The hostile-relations ladder, weakest to strongest (the `cap` in
+ * {@link shiftRelationTowardHostile} is a member of this array). A missing
+ * relation is treated as `neutral`; `war` is never touched (a war is its own
+ * entity — a covert op neither fabricates nor ends one).
+ */
+const HOSTILE_ORDER: RelationStatus[] = ['ally', 'neutral', 'rival', 'hostile'];
+
+/**
+ * (v0.34.0, #57) Nudge the bilateral relation between nations `a` and `b`
+ * ONE step toward hostile (on the {@link HOSTILE_ORDER} ladder), applied
+ * symmetrically to both directions, but never past the given `cap`. A missing
+ * relation starts at `neutral`; a `war` relation is never touched (a covert op
+ * neither fabricates nor downgrades a war). Used for the `information` /
+ * `proxy` nudge and the `exposed` backfire. Mutates `state` in place (the
+ * caller passes a clone — applyTurnResult does). Never throws.
+ */
+export function shiftRelationTowardHostile(
+  state: GameState,
+  a: string,
+  b: string,
+  cap: RelationStatus,
+): void {
+  const na = state.nations[a];
+  const nb = state.nations[b];
+  if (!na || !nb) return;
+  const capIdx = HOSTILE_ORDER.indexOf(cap);
+  if (capIdx === -1) return; // unknown cap: no-op (defensive)
+  const step = (cur: RelationStatus | undefined): RelationStatus | null => {
+    if (cur === 'war') return null; // never touch a war relation
+    const s = cur ?? 'neutral'; // a missing relation is neutral
+    const i = HOSTILE_ORDER.indexOf(s);
+    if (i === -1) return 'neutral'; // defensive: unknown status
+    if (i >= capIdx) return s; // at or past the cap: no change
+    return HOSTILE_ORDER[i + 1];
+  };
+  const stepA = step(na.relations[b]);
+  if (stepA !== null) na.relations[b] = stepA;
+  const stepB = step(nb.relations[a]);
+  if (stepB !== null) nb.relations[a] = stepB;
+}
+
+/**
+ * (v0.34.0, #57) The display name of a hybrid op's target for the auto
+ * backfire event: a nation target shows the nation's name; a region target
+ * shows the region's display name (or its raw key when no resolver is given).
+ */
+function hybridTargetDisplayName(
+  target: { nation: Nation; regionKey?: string },
+  regionNameOf?: (key: string) => string | undefined,
+): string {
+  if (target.regionKey !== undefined) return regionNameOf?.(target.regionKey) ?? target.regionKey;
+  return target.nation.name;
+}
+
+/**
+ * (v0.34.0, #57) Resolve a hybrid op's `target` (a nation id/name OR a region
+ * key) to the concrete nation it affects. A nation ref resolves via
+ * {@link resolveNationRef}; a region key resolves to its SOLE owner (a region
+ * with zero or 2+ owners can't be a valid target). Returns the affected nation
+ * plus the specific region key (when the target was a region) so a stat op can
+ * dip just that region. `validKeys` (when supplied) gates the region-key path;
+ * a ref that is neither a known nation nor a valid region key returns `null`.
+ * Pure; never throws.
+ */
+function resolveHybridTarget(
+  state: GameState,
+  target: string,
+  validKeys?: ReadonlySet<string>,
+): { nation: Nation; regionKey?: string } | null {
+  const id = resolveNationRef(state, target);
+  if (id !== null) {
+    const n = state.nations[id];
+    return n ? { nation: n } : null;
+  }
+  const key = (target ?? '').trim();
+  if (!key) return null;
+  if (validKeys && !validKeys.has(key)) return null; // unknown region key
+  const owners = Object.values(state.nations).filter((n) => n.territory.includes(key));
+  if (owners.length !== 1) return null; // 0 or 2+ owners: not a targetable region
+  return { nation: owners[0], regionKey: key };
+}
+
+/**
+ * (v0.34.0, #57) Apply ONE hybrid op to the (cloned) `next` state, mutating it
+ * in place and never throwing. Resolution order:
+ *   1. `from` must resolve to a nation (id first, then a unique name); an
+ *      unknown / ambiguous actor drops the op.
+ *   2. `target` must resolve to a concrete nation (a nation ref, or a region
+ *      key's sole owner); an unresolvable target drops the op.
+ *   3. A self-target (`from` and the target nation are the same) is dropped.
+ * Then, per type:
+ *   - an `exposed` op BACKFIRES: no intended effect, the actor's relation with
+ *     the target sours by one step (cap hostile), and an auto diplomatic/
+ *     failure event is emitted (the engine's own narrative, mirroring the
+ *     "repelled" auto-event).
+ *   - a successful stat op (sabotage / assassinate / cyber / economic) dips the
+ *     target's `regionStats` by its per-type delta — the single named region
+ *     when the target was a region key, otherwise every region the target
+ *     owns — then re-derives the target nation's aggregate stats (the same
+ *     0-region / no-entry guards as the main recompute), so the effect
+ *     persists to the next turn.
+ *   - a successful `information` / `proxy` sours the actor's relation with the
+ *     target by one step (information caps at hostile, proxy at rival).
+ *   - `spy` is informational only (no stat, no relation) — a no-op except for
+ *     whatever the LLM narrates in `events`.
+ */
+function applyHybridOp(
+  next: GameState,
+  op: HybridOp,
+  geoOf?: (key: string) => { area: number; population: number } | undefined,
+  validKeys?: ReadonlySet<string>,
+  regionNameOf?: (key: string) => string | undefined,
+  actingTurn?: number,
+): void {
+  const turn = actingTurn ?? next.turn;
+  const from = resolveNationRef(next, op.from);
+  if (from === null) return; // unknown / ambiguous actor: drop
+  const target = resolveHybridTarget(next, op.target, validKeys);
+  if (target === null) return; // unresolvable target: drop
+  if (from === target.nation.id) return; // self-target: drop
+
+  if (op.outcome === 'exposed') {
+    // Backfire: no intended effect; the relation sours by one step (cap
+    // hostile) and an auto diplomatic/failure event is emitted.
+    shiftRelationTowardHostile(next, from, target.nation.id, 'hostile');
+    const actor = next.nations[from];
+    next.events.push(
+      makeEvent(
+        {
+          nation: from,
+          type: 'diplomatic',
+          title: 'Covert operation exposed',
+          text: `${actor?.name ?? from}'s ${op.type} operation against ${hybridTargetDisplayName(
+            target,
+            regionNameOf,
+          )} was exposed; relations sour in response.`,
+          outcome: 'failure',
+        },
+        turn,
+        next.date,
+      ),
+    );
+    return;
+  }
+
+  const eff = HYBRID_STAT_EFFECT[op.type];
+  if (eff) {
+    // A successful stat op: dip the target's region(s), then re-derive.
+    if (target.regionKey !== undefined) {
+      const rs = next.regionStats[target.regionKey];
+      if (rs) rs[eff.stat] = clampStat(rs[eff.stat] + eff.delta);
+    } else {
+      for (const key of target.nation.territory) {
+        const rs = next.regionStats[key];
+        if (!rs) continue;
+        rs[eff.stat] = clampStat(rs[eff.stat] + eff.delta);
+      }
+    }
+    // Re-derive the target nation's aggregate stats. The main recompute ran
+    // earlier this turn, so without this the dip would be washed out next
+    // turn. The same 0-region / no-entry guards as the main recompute apply.
+    if (target.nation.territory.length > 0) {
+      if (target.nation.territory.some((k) => next.regionStats[k])) {
+        target.nation.stats = deriveNationStats(
+          target.nation.territory,
+          next.regionStats,
+          geoOf,
+        );
+      }
+    }
+    return;
+  }
+
+  // information / proxy: a relation nudge (spy is a pure no-op here).
+  if (op.type === 'information') shiftRelationTowardHostile(next, from, target.nation.id, 'hostile');
+  else if (op.type === 'proxy') shiftRelationTowardHostile(next, from, target.nation.id, 'rival');
+}
+
 /**
  * A turn is "meaningful" if it produced at least an event, a stat change, a
  * no-man's-land release (v0.22 #16 P3: a release is a real world change even
@@ -901,6 +1187,9 @@ export function isMeaningful(result: TurnResult): boolean {
     // (v0.33.0, #56) a war declared or ended is a real world change.
     result.wars.declare.length > 0 ||
     result.wars.end.length > 0 ||
+    // (v0.34.0, #57) a hybrid op (a successful one or an exposed backfire) is
+    // a real world change (a stat dip or a soured relation).
+    result.hybrid.ops.length > 0 ||
     // (v0.27, #44) a marker placed or removed this turn is a real world change.
     result.markers.add.length > 0 ||
     result.markers.remove.length > 0
@@ -1246,6 +1535,17 @@ export function applyTurnResult(
     syncWarRelations(state, next);
   }
 
+  // --- Hybrid war (v0.34.0, #57): covert, non-kinetic operations ---
+  //
+  // Each op's deterministic per-type effect is applied to the post-wars state
+  // (a stat dip on the target's regions, or a relation nudge toward hostile).
+  // An `exposed` op backfires instead. They never move borders, so they run
+  // after the territory changes and before the markers (a marker's owner is
+  // recomputed from the final ownership, unaffected by a stat/relation dip).
+  for (const op of result.hybrid.ops) {
+    applyHybridOp(next, op, geoOf, validKeys, regionNameOf, actingTurn);
+  }
+
   // --- Map markers (v0.27, #44) ---
   //
   // Markers are anchored to a region key and are processed against the FINAL
@@ -1744,6 +2044,11 @@ export async function runTurn(opts: {
       sides: w.sides,
       ...(w.aims && w.aims.length > 0 ? { aims: w.aims } : {}),
     }));
+  // (v0.34.0, #57) the player's current relations to every other nation, so the
+  // model sees the ladder its `information` / `proxy` hybrid ops nudge (and the
+  // starting point before an `exposed` backfire). Always emitted ({} when the
+  // player has no relations yet).
+  const relations = state.nations[state.playerNationId]?.relations ?? {};
   const user = buildUserPrompt(
     state,
     items,
@@ -1752,6 +2057,7 @@ export async function runTurn(opts: {
     state.unowned ?? [],
     markers,
     wars,
+    relations,
   );
   const nudge =
     'Your previous output was invalid. Respond with ONLY the JSON object described above for this batch — no prose, no fences.';
@@ -1806,6 +2112,7 @@ export async function runTurn(opts: {
       nationOps: [],
       takeovers: [],
       wars: { declare: [], end: [] },
+      hybrid: { ops: [] },
       markers: { add: [], remove: [] },
     };
   }